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The so-called geopolitical risk
has been the most haunting hazard on the Korea peninsula for
more than six decades since the
end of the Korean War. It was notoriously difficult to substantiate it and had made
many insiders and outsiders hesitate to
devote themselves in economic engagements on the peninsula.
At first, there was the ideological confrontation between the North and South,
then a severe military tug of war, finally
followed by a nuclear threat when everything else did not work out favorably for
the North. Indeed, this threat existing
since the 1990s has been a prime hazard
not just to South Korea but to the entire
world. That is why the UN Security
Council has warned and imposed numerous sanctions against provocations by the
North for more than two decades. There
was constant psychological as well as
physical fear of attack by the North,
which steered potential investors away
from South Korea. Of course there had
been periods of friendly denuclearization
negotiations between the two Koreas, but
in essence, they had been nothing more
than a disguised break.
However, the dark and thick cloud of
confrontation surrounding the peninsula
for more than sixty years is finally beginning to clear. The South Korean government not only initiated a “summit talk”
between the two Koreas but successfully
mediated the arrangement of a meeting
between the U.S. President and North
Korea’s leader by utilizing the
PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games.
President Moon of South Korea will meet
Chairman Kim Jong-un in late April this
year, and then President Trump will have
a face-to-face meeting with Mr. Kim at
some point later on. It is uncertain what
agendas will be brought to the table by
each party let alone on how the results of
these two historical meetings will come
to be.
Of course, the three key players are
yearning for quite disparate wishes. It is
now very clear that the U.S. will want
denuclearization under the CVID princi
ple, referring to the complete, verifiable,
irreversible dismantlement of nuclear
arms. However, the North is very unlikely to denuclearize unless there is CVIG,
or complete, verifiable, irreversible guarantee of the regime. Therefore, a crash of
the two mutually contradictory principles
of CVID and CVIG can be expected in
the meeting between the U.S. and North
Korea. While their stances are quite conflicting and centered on the issue of denuclearization, South Korea’s position,
especially under President Moon’s government, is slightly different, as it seeks a
peacefully unified and cooperating peninsula. It puts more emphasis on collaboration and communication between the two
Koreas rather than on the military issues.
At the end of the day, The U.S. government seems to identify trade issues with
national security, and consequently, with
military concerns. To the U.S., the North-South economic cooperation that the
Moon administration is constantly aiming
for cannot be detached from the military
issue regarding defense of the peninsula.
Indeed, confrontation between countries
including the U.S., China, North Korea,
Russia and Japan is the last thing that the
Moon administration wants. In short, the
entangled Gordian knots between the
U.S. and the two Koreas are so complicated, intricate, and complex that it is too
premature and precarious to predict what
the outcome will be.
And yet, there are strong signals that a
dawn of hope of a nuke-free peninsula is
about to break. There are a number of
signs to believe so. First, North Korea’s
economic and social environment is
directing its leadership towards an
increasingly open attitude, especially
toward the U.S. Additionally, economic
sanctions have definitely been presenting
perverse effects on lives of the North
Korean people, bringing high inflation,
frequent resource shortages, illegal smuggling and corruption. Mounting pressure
and antagonism from the inside is very
difficult to repel for such a young and
western educated leader like Mr. Kim
Jong-un. It is not clear whether the North
will entirely dismantle nuclear arsenals to
gain an economic lift, but this cannot be
factored out completely. Second, for the
first time in history, the U.S. President
will have a face-to-face meeting with the
North Korean leader. Perhaps as unpredictable as the two leaders are, nobody
can outright dispel the possibility of an
unbelievably positive result between the
two. Even without dramatic outcomes,
the meeting itself deserves much credit.
Third, the tension-filled inter-Korean
relations has dramatically improved
under President Moon’s leadership. Of
course there has been severe criticism
about his efforts in bringing North Korea
into the dialogues, but the meeting with
Mr. Kim Jong-un, is regarded by many as
the beginning of belated but true detente
on the peninsula.
It may not be a chaotic reunification
like Vietnam in 1975, nor as dramatic as
Germany in 1990, but many have high
hopes that we are one stop closer to a
peaceful reunification of the peninsula
due to the summit talks. Considering the
complexities of the decades-long tension
that exists between the U.S. and South
Korea on one side and the North on the
other, it is more than worthwhile to give
the talks a chance and dream of the dawning of nuke-free peace on the peninsula.
By Professor Se Don Shin
Dean, Sookmyung Women’s University
seshin@sm.ac.kr
The above article does not necessarily reflect the views or position of KOTRA.